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Posted May 9th, 2008 by OBA Administrator in General
With election day right around the corner, we have asked our political pros - and OBA members - to take a shot at predicting and analyzing the May 20th Oregon Primary.
OBA INSIDERS - TELL US SOMETHING WE DON’T KNOW
Brian Gard - President/CEO, Gard Communications, OBA Board Member and Immediate Past Board Chair
“If the Obama/Clinton race is still in play by the Oregon primary, it will dramatically affect turnout, which in turn will affect a number of important Democrat and nonpartisan races in Oregon. More Democrats will vote and more Obama Democrats will vote and many of the latter will be new voters. The effect of turnout is one of the charms of democracy.”
Len Bergstein - President, Northwest Strategies, OBA Board Member
“Oregon’s primary will catch national attention — not because of any unique policy confrontation, but because of the quirkiness of our vote-by-mail system. National media stories will focus on the “party switchers” who received double ballots, the stress on Multnomah County’s last-minute shakeup of election officials and the postage stamp dilemma for voters who come up a couple of pennies short after May 12 postal rates rise.”
Jack Isselman - Attorney, Tonkon Torp, LLP
“Despite missing out on some newspaper endorsements and never leading the race in independent polls, House Speaker Jeff Merkley will secure the Democratic nomination for the US Senate by a comfortable margin. Merkley’s will victory propel him into a competitive contest with incumbent Gordon Smith who must contend with the fact that substantially more Democrats are forecast to turnout in November 2008 than in any other election in Smith’s career.”
Jim Carlson - Executive Director, Oregon Health Care Association
“Technology is dramatically affecting how campaigns are reaching or attempting to reach voters. While TiVo helps viewers avoid political ads on TV and has diminished the value of television advertising somewhat, the “viral” effect of the internet and online fundraising is helping insurgent campaigns compete. This is the first election I can recall where the internet has become the primary source of candidate or campaign information for many voters. I’ve seen more candidate ads on the internet this election than I have on television.”
Dan Lavey - Partner, Gallatin Public Affairs
“Watch for Portland City Commissioner Sam Adams to garner more than 50% of the vote in the May primary eliminating the need for a run-off in the Fall.”
Colin Fogarty - Senior Project Manager, Pyramid Communications, Former OPB Correspondent
“Obama clinches the nomination in Oregon, delivering a rousing victory speech in Portland. But Hillary does well in Kentucky, where she declares that she’ll soldier on. With all the attention focused on the presidential nomination, few notice Steve Novick squeaks to victory, despite a massive last minute negative campaign by Merkley, and despite a surprise appearance at Merkely’s campaign party by Bono.”
If you would like to make a prediction of your own or comment on the OBA Insiders, please do so in the form below.
Posted March 13th, 2008 by OBA Administrator in General
Once again we have asked our resident political pros - and OBA members - to contribute to the Balance Voice by giving us a prediction for a segment titled:
OBA INSIDERS - TELL US SOMETHING WE DON’T KNOW
Gary Conkling - Managing Partner, Conkling Fiskum & McCormick
“If the economic downturn forces lawmakers back to Salem later this year to trim state budgets, it won’t make the February supplemental session seem all that valuable of an idea to Oregon voters who probably will be asked to amend the constitution to allow annual legislative sessions.”
Brian Gard - President/CEO, Gard Communications, OBA Board Member and Immediate Past Board Chair
“The sad and confused state of the Republican party in Oregon is reflected in the state treasurer’s race between a Democrat, who was an Independent and a Republican before that, and a Republican, who has just finished a stint working for a Democrat governor. Moderate Republicans have no place to hang out. So, expect the Democrat margin in the senate and house to increase this year.”
Len Bergstein - President, Northwest Strategies, OBA Board Member
“One important dividend from Governor Kulongoski’s emphasis on transportation and climate change issues will be the increased attention Oregon gets as a potential “test site” for companies looking to “test drive the future”, in a state with a high degree of consumer awareness and public sector appetite for new vehicle configuration.”
Larry Campbell - President, The Victory Group, Former Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives
“The appointment, by Governor Kulongoski, of Brad Avakian to the post of Labor Commissioner, replacing Dan Gardner, opens the door to a Kate Brown vs. Rick Dancer final in the Secretary of State General Election race.”
Mary Ellen Glynn - Senior Project Manager, Pyramid Communications, Gov. Kulongoski’s former Communication Director
“After delegate-heavy primaries in North Carolina and Indiana on Tuesday May 6, the Clinton and Obama campaigns will wake up to the fact that voters in Oregon have their ballots in their hands and will sprint to the west coast to gather a few votes. Look for a big push from the Hillary Campiagn.”
Justin Martin - President, Perseverance Strategies, Inc.
“Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) contender Matt “The Law” Lindland announced his candidacy to replace State Representative Patty Smith. The prospect of an intimidating professional fighter serving in the Oregon Legislature could put an end to partisan bickering and fighting or take it to a new level.”
Posted February 21st, 2008 by OBA Administrator in General
by Ryan Deckert, OBA President
Oscar nominee “Juno” tells the story of a smart, witty 17 year-old girl who battles teen pregnancy and all the challenges life offers a student graduating from high school.
What (you ask) does Juno have to do with “soccer moms“?
Everything. I believe these young voters (18-25 year olds) will be this year’s Presidential election prototypical swing voter. Suburban mothers who carted their children from soccer to school were credited with delivering the Presidency to Bill Clinton.
Eight years later, pollsters told us that “office park dads“ would decide whether George Bush would prevail over Al Gore. They broke his way…and the Presidency went to Bush. Those who want to debate the 2000 election (again) are free to do so in the OBA Forum.
Another eight years have passed and we face the question: who is this year’s “swing voter?” Two candidates have proven they can text, IM and Facebook with Juno and her friends. One has upped the ante, by showing he can do the impossible – that is inspire them.
Young voters have always liked John McCain. Why? Because he rolls in the Straight Talk Express. He ends his speeches with inconvenient truths. He is, in short, the real deal. These young voters will label a candidate “typical politician” quicker than you can say swift boat. They look at John McCain and believe he ends his dinner conversations with a little domestic straight talk – much to his chagrin of his wife and dinner guests.
Barack Obama has made Juno and her peers a central front in his candidacy – he wants to do what the pundits deem impossible – that is to inspire them to turn-out like their parents and grandparents. From Iowa to Maryland, young voters have responded in record numbers for the man who repeats, “yes, we can.”
Who gets the Juno vote? Both these candidates have proven they can sway them - unlike any of their rivals. The challenge for Obama and McCain will be to turn them into “soccer moms” and “office park dads” twenty years ahead of schedule. Engaging young voters in Oregon and across the country could change the political landscape for years to come.
Posted February 8th, 2008 by OBA Administrator in Environment/Economic Development
OBA’s Environmental Enhancement Tax Credit is up for a hearing on Monday. The bill is being supported by a strong coalition of business leaders who will testify on behalf of the tax credit which provides a $10 million incentive for companies to exceed state and federal environmental regulations.
Some questions have been raised about this bill. Here are the answers.
Companies all across the state are supporting the EETC and saying a tax credit that encourages businesses to exceed environmental protection regulations is better than no tax credit at all.
Click here for more information about the EETC
Posted January 31st, 2008 by OBA Administrator in Environment/Economic Development
EETC - Good for Business, Good for
By Dennis Denton
Denton Plastics strongly supports OBA’s effort to pass the Environmental Enhancement Tax Credit in the 2008 session. We believe that it is possible to help the environment and promote economically sound business principles at the same time. The EETC is an outstanding opportunity to encourage both economic growth and sustainability.
Sustainability has been our business for 25 years. By taking plastics out of the waste stream and compounding them into new resins, we not only help the environment, but also offer quality material at a cost savings to manufacturers.
A full-service plastic recycler, Denton Plastics offers our customers a wide-range of opportunities. First, we bring in plastic scrap from all over, taking material that would otherwise be headed for the landfill and providing businesses an opportunity to recycle. Our high-quality reprocessed resins are designed to meet our customers’ specific needs to make everything from pipe to flower pots to kayaks. We also bring in railcars of virgin resin and give our customers the option of blending our reprocessed material with our virgin material, making it possible for them to use recycled content for more applications.
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We are excited about OBA’s efforts to pass the Enhanced Environmental Tax Credit because of what it means for companies like ours. At Denton Plastics, we are always looking for new feedstocks. There is a demand for our recycled resins and we are seeing that demand increase. In order to meet our customers’ needs, we want to go deeper into the waste stream. The EETC would provide us the opportunity to pursue these goals by making it more economically feasible.
Denton Plastics is a small, locally-owned business with about 40 employees and the desire to grow. We have already laid out plans to attain additional equipment to wash dirty material. The EETC would make this capital investment possible sooner. The sooner we can provide a new market for landfill-bound dirty plastics, the sooner we can pass along the environmental and economic benefits.
We would like to thank OBA and other supporters of the EETC for their commitment to helping companies like Denton Plastics expand
Dennis Denton is President & Founder of Denton Plastics, Inc. and Chairman of the 2008 Global Plastics Environmental Conference.
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