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May 15th, 2008
When the candidates vying to be the next president of the United States visit Oregon, they make sure that their messages reflect the values of Oregonians – innovation, leadership, sustainability. As they actively campaign for the Oregon vote, Senators Clinton, McCain and Obama have chosen as their respective venues OBA member companies that embody these values.
Barack Obama met with employees at Vernier Software & Technology, Hillary Clinton talked healthcare at OHSU and John McCain outlined his position on Climate Change at Vestas Energy.
Vernier Software & Technology provides award-winning data-collection technology to science and math educators. Senator Obama used the visit to the Beaverton based tech company to emphasize the need for funding increases for higher education and his plans to improve science education.
As the state’s only health and research university, Oregon Health & Science University (OHSU) brings together patient care, research, education of the next generation of health care providers and scientists and community service to improve the health and well-being of all Oregonians. Hillary Clinton’s long-standing support for healthcare reform made a tour of Doernbecher Children’s Hospital an appropriate stage for a discussion of her universal healthcare proposal.
Vestas Energy is the world’s leading supplier of wind power turbines. John McCain speaking at Vestas Business Academy in Portland, outlined his position on climate change including his support of a cap-and-trade plan to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
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May 9th, 2008
With election day right around the corner, we have asked our political pros - and OBA members - to take a shot at predicting and analyzing the May 20th Oregon Primary.
OBA INSIDERS - TELL US SOMETHING WE DON’T KNOW
Brian Gard - President/CEO, Gard Communications, OBA Board Member and Immediate Past Board Chair
“If the Obama/Clinton race is still in play by the Oregon primary, it will dramatically affect turnout, which in turn will affect a number of important Democrat and nonpartisan races in Oregon. More Democrats will vote and more Obama Democrats will vote and many of the latter will be new voters. The effect of turnout is one of the charms of democracy.”
Len Bergstein - President, Northwest Strategies, OBA Board Member
“Oregon’s primary will catch national attention — not because of any unique policy confrontation, but because of the quirkiness of our vote-by-mail system. National media stories will focus on the “party switchers” who received double ballots, the stress on Multnomah County’s last-minute shakeup of election officials and the postage stamp dilemma for voters who come up a couple of pennies short after May 12 postal rates rise.”
Jack Isselman - Attorney, Tonkon Torp, LLP
“Despite missing out on some newspaper endorsements and never leading the race in independent polls, House Speaker Jeff Merkley will secure the Democratic nomination for the US Senate by a comfortable margin. Merkley’s will victory propel him into a competitive contest with incumbent Gordon Smith who must contend with the fact that substantially more Democrats are forecast to turnout in November 2008 than in any other election in Smith’s career.”
Jim Carlson - Executive Director, Oregon Health Care Association
“Technology is dramatically affecting how campaigns are reaching or attempting to reach voters. While TiVo helps viewers avoid political ads on TV and has diminished the value of television advertising somewhat, the “viral” effect of the internet and online fundraising is helping insurgent campaigns compete. This is the first election I can recall where the internet has become the primary source of candidate or campaign information for many voters. I’ve seen more candidate ads on the internet this election than I have on television.”
Dan Lavey - Partner, Gallatin Public Affairs
“Watch for Portland City Commissioner Sam Adams to garner more than 50% of the vote in the May primary eliminating the need for a run-off in the Fall.”
Colin Fogarty - Senior Project Manager, Pyramid Communications, Former OPB Correspondent
“Obama clinches the nomination in Oregon, delivering a rousing victory speech in Portland. But Hillary does well in Kentucky, where she declares that she’ll soldier on. With all the attention focused on the presidential nomination, few notice Steve Novick squeaks to victory, despite a massive last minute negative campaign by Merkley, and despite a surprise appearance at Merkely’s campaign party by Bono.”
If you would like to make a prediction of your own or comment on the OBA Insiders, please do so in the form below.
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March 13th, 2008
Once again we have asked our resident political pros - and OBA members - to contribute to the Balance Voice by giving us a prediction for a segment titled:
OBA INSIDERS - TELL US SOMETHING WE DON’T KNOW
Gary Conkling - Managing Partner, Conkling Fiskum & McCormick
“If the economic downturn forces lawmakers back to Salem later this year to trim state budgets, it won’t make the February supplemental session seem all that valuable of an idea to Oregon voters who probably will be asked to amend the constitution to allow annual legislative sessions.”
Brian Gard - President/CEO, Gard Communications, OBA Board Member and Immediate Past Board Chair
“The sad and confused state of the Republican party in Oregon is reflected in the state treasurer’s race between a Democrat, who was an Independent and a Republican before that, and a Republican, who has just finished a stint working for a Democrat governor. Moderate Republicans have no place to hang out. So, expect the Democrat margin in the senate and house to increase this year.”
Len Bergstein - President, Northwest Strategies, OBA Board Member
“One important dividend from Governor Kulongoski’s emphasis on transportation and climate change issues will be the increased attention Oregon gets as a potential “test site” for companies looking to “test drive the future”, in a state with a high degree of consumer awareness and public sector appetite for new vehicle configuration.”
Larry Campbell - President, The Victory Group, Former Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives
“The appointment, by Governor Kulongoski, of Brad Avakian to the post of Labor Commissioner, replacing Dan Gardner, opens the door to a Kate Brown vs. Rick Dancer final in the Secretary of State General Election race.”
Mary Ellen Glynn - Senior Project Manager, Pyramid Communications, Gov. Kulongoski’s former Communication Director
“After delegate-heavy primaries in North Carolina and Indiana on Tuesday May 6, the Clinton and Obama campaigns will wake up to the fact that voters in Oregon have their ballots in their hands and will sprint to the west coast to gather a few votes. Look for a big push from the Hillary Campiagn.”
Justin Martin - President, Perseverance Strategies, Inc.
“Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) contender Matt “The Law” Lindland announced his candidacy to replace State Representative Patty Smith. The prospect of an intimidating professional fighter serving in the Oregon Legislature could put an end to partisan bickering and fighting or take it to a new level.”
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February 21st, 2008
by Ryan Deckert, OBA President
Oscar nominee “Juno” tells the story of a smart, witty 17 year-old girl who battles teen pregnancy and all the challenges life offers a student graduating from high school.
What (you ask) does Juno have to do with “soccer moms“?
Everything. I believe these young voters (18-25 year olds) will be this year’s Presidential election prototypical swing voter. Suburban mothers who carted their children from soccer to school were credited with delivering the Presidency to Bill Clinton.
Eight years later, pollsters told us that “office park dads“ would decide whether George Bush would prevail over Al Gore. They broke his way…and the Presidency went to Bush. Those who want to debate the 2000 election (again) are free to do so in the OBA Forum.
Another eight years have passed and we face the question: who is this year’s “swing voter?” Two candidates have proven they can text, IM and Facebook with Juno and her friends. One has upped the ante, by showing he can do the impossible – that is inspire them.
Young voters have always liked John McCain. Why? Because he rolls in the Straight Talk Express. He ends his speeches with inconvenient truths. He is, in short, the real deal. These young voters will label a candidate “typical politician” quicker than you can say swift boat. They look at John McCain and believe he ends his dinner conversations with a little domestic straight talk – much to his chagrin of his wife and dinner guests.
Barack Obama has made Juno and her peers a central front in his candidacy – he wants to do what the pundits deem impossible – that is to inspire them to turn-out like their parents and grandparents. From Iowa to Maryland, young voters have responded in record numbers for the man who repeats, “yes, we can.”
Who gets the Juno vote? Both these candidates have proven they can sway them - unlike any of their rivals. The challenge for Obama and McCain will be to turn them into “soccer moms” and “office park dads” twenty years ahead of schedule. Engaging young voters in Oregon and across the country could change the political landscape for years to come.
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January 10th, 2008
We asked a few political pros - and OBA members - to contribute to this week’s Balanced Voice by giving us a prediction for a segment titled:
OBA INSIDERS - TELL US SOMETHING WE DON’T KNOW
Gary Conkling - Managing Partner, Conkling Fiskum & McCormick
“2008 may become one of those watershed election years when voters express their exasperation by turning to anti-establishment candidates who promise change. Tired of constant partisan bickering and political stalemate, voters will give the edge to candidates who seek consensus rather than confrontation. Both trends push the sails of Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama.”
Len Bergstein - President, Northwest Strategies, OBA Board Member
“Health care and anti-smoking advocates will re-calibrate their efforts in the wake of Ballot Measure 50 — focusing on cigarette taxes in select local jurisdictions…in turn forcing representatives of tobacco companies to plead with the 2009 State Legislature for pre-emption through a modest state-wide, uniform tax on cigarettes and tobacco products.”
Larry Campbell - President, The Victory Group, Inc., Former Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives
“Oregon will gain an additional seat in Congress as the result of shifts in the national population. This increase will give Republicans an excellent opportunity to gain a seat in Oregon.”
Dave Barrows - Principal, Dave Barrows & Associates
“When Oregonians vote in the May primary, the Republican presidential nomination will still be unknown, thus Oregon will play a role in picking the nominee.”
Brian Gard - President/CEO, Gard Communications, OBA Board Member and Immediate Past Board Chair
“Speaker Jeff Merkley rose to the occasion in the 07 House session, but look for Majority Leader Dave Hunt’s influence to increase in the February session as Merkley’s race against Steve Novick turns into more of a contest than was expected.”
Mary Ellen Glynn - Senior Project Manager, Pyramid Communications, Gov. Kulongoski’s former Communications Director.
“Somewhere, somehow, some entity in Oregon will enact a carbon tax in 2008, and Republicans will jump on board.”
If you would like to make a prediction of your own or comment on the OBA Insiders’, fill out the form below.
Look for the OBA Insiders to return with more predictions soon.
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